Best Bets
1) Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ -105
Todays NFL picks start with Cowboys -10.5. Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 28-10 victory against the New York Giants, meanwhile the Indianapolis Colts are coming off a 17-24 loss at home. Colts offense is slow and unproductive being 29th in Red Zone scoring percentage, the Cowboys on the other hand are 4th in Red zone Scoring Percentage. My model indicates the true line should be set at -15 making this my NFL PICK OF THE DAY.
2) Dolphins ML @ +172
Miami Dolphins have not had worthy opponents in the past 5 weeks and today get to showoff that they are the real deal facing the San Francisco 49ers at Levis Stadium. Dolphins are coming in as the 2nd ranked passing offense averaging 291 yards per game while the 49ers are 11th in passing defense. Miami’s speed is going to be a problem resulting in a must watch game today.
3) Chicago Bears ML @ +176
Green Bay Packers head to the windy city to face off against the Chicago Bears. I know what your going to say AARON RODGERS OWNS THE BEARS, and you would be right for saying that. Aaron Rodgers has a 23-5 record against the Bears and holds a 7 game streak however STREAKS ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN and today seems like the day to do it.
Bonus Pick: New York Jets ML @ +132
I had a dream that Mike White led the Jets like a modern William Wallace, this is a result of that dream
Odds Analysis
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ -105
At the time of this article the spread sits at -10.5 giving the Dallas Cowboys a 51% chance of covering, my model indicates that true line should be set at -15. Based on the true line being higher my model indicates the Cowboys have a 10% higher chance of covering at 61%.
Dolphins ML @ +172
At +172 Fanduel gives the Miami Dolphins a 37% chance of winning, my model indicates that the Dolphins actually have a 48% chance of winning. This game is essentially a toss up however the odds are much more favorable on the Dolphins side. If you are a conservative bettor the Dolphins +4.5 is also a good play.
Chicago Bears ML @ +176
With +176 odds Fanduel gives the Bears a 36% chance of winning, my model indicates the Bears have a 47% chance of winning. Again another game that is almost a coinflip, like the Dolphins ML bet the odds are much better on the Bears side which explains my pick. In the long run with good bank roll management these bets have higher expected return.
New York Jets ML @ +132
Sitting at +132 Fanduel gives the New York Jets a 43% chance of winning, my model indicates the Jets have closer to a 50% chance. If it sounds like I’m repeating myself… I AM. The books give these toss up games worse odds on the slight favorites making underdogs in these situations much more favorable bets. In the game of football anything can happen and underdogs can be very profitable in the long run