Best Value NBA Picks
1) Atlanta Hawks ML @ +102
Unreal week, so far we are 5-1 with our NBA picks! We hope to keep it up with our first of four NBA picks today starting with the Atlanta Hawks ML @ +102 vs the New York Knicks. Atlanta is coming off a 114-121 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Trae Young struggled, shooting 1/7 from the three and 6/19 from the field. The key in this game is going to come from Trae Young shooting the three effectively. This will free up the paint for drives, and give Capela room to work.
2) Indiana Pacers ML @ +160
Like I said on Monday the Indiana Pacers are bad but not 11 points bad. In their last contest the Pacers managed a +450 underdog upset against the Golden State Warriors, winning 112-104. The Pacers will be on the road again, facing of against the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is a huge momentum game for the Pacers. Andrew Nembhard is coming off his best career performance of 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 13 assist, and the team as a whole is meshing well and playing outstanding basketball.
3) Washington Wizards ML @ +176
This pick I will go on the record and say is a toss up. The third NBA pick on todays slate is the Washington Wizards ML @ +176 vs the Chicago Bulls. Both of these teams are on 3 game losing streaks and have a chance to turn it around today. The Bulls on paper are the better team with Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine all set to start today. However I think that this is a game that prices to much of that roster into the line, making wizards a much better value play. That being said I would not mind playing the Wizards spread instead of the line, your call.
Bonus Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +8 @ -110
The Bonus Pick tonight for those who come to the site for these NBA picks will be… OKC +8 @ -110 vs the Memphis Grizzlies. I cant stress enough how good this Thunder team is. They never give up and always make a run for the win. I think that OKC can win this game however given that they are coming off a tough 124-114 win against the Atlanta Hawks and Luguentz Dort is out tonight I think that the +8 spread is much safer.
Odds Analysis
Atlanta Hawks ML @ +102
At +102 Fanduel has the Atlanta Hawks predicted to win 50% of the time. Our model indicates the Hawks actually have a 56% predicted win rate. Our model also indicates that the Atlanta Hawks should have a -2 point spread compared to the books +2. In this case the +2 spread is also a positive expected value play.
Indiana Pacers ML @ +160
With +160 odds Fanduel gives the Indiana Pacers a 40% chance of winning, our model indicates that the Pacers actually have a 53% chance of winning. The spread in our model also has the Pacers at -1 whilst Fanduel has them at +4.5.
Washington Wizards ML @ +176
With +200 odds Fanduel gives the Washington Wizards a 35% chance of winning, our model indicates the Wizards have a 47% chance of winning. This game is almost a coinflip, however your are getting much better odds with the Wizards here. Anything can happen in the NBA and effective shooting can have an impact for the Wizards tonight
Oklahoma City Thunder +8 @ -110
Sitting at -110 Fanduel gives the Oklahoma City Thunder a 52% chance of covering, our model indicates the Pacers have closer to a 62% chance of covering. Luguentz Dort being out could have a significant impact on this game. It is also important to consider that the Memphis Grizzlies set the highest margin of victory of 73 points against the Thunder back in 2021.