This is where this bankroll challenge changes course. Today I’m going to be taking the San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors with the Spurs + 6.5.
If we take a look at each teams effective FG% the spurs lead the Raptors in both Season average as well as in their last five games. Effective FG% accounts for 85% correlation with the winning team, this correlation is only accurate after the game has happened. I will be looking at running a correlation of Effective FG% through their last five games and outcome of the current game to see whether or not it is a good metric to use.
Spurs are good enough to keep this game close or even beat the Raptors, because of my conviction I will be putting $15 on this bet
The second bet that I will be putting in today will come from Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers with the Grizzlies mone-line +126.
The Grizzlies are looking exceptional, they recently beat the nets with a healthy James Harden and Kevin Durant. Cavaliers don’t have nets caliber players. This is a pure intuition play and violates the effective FG% stat.
I’ve allocated $13.94 to this pick.