Best Value NBA Picks
1) Boston Celtics ML @ -104
To start off our NBA Picks this week we have… Boston Celtics ML @ -104 vs Toronto Raptors. Celtics are coming off a great 103-92 win over the Brooklyn Nets yesterday. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum combined for 63 points, each of them shooting at least 50% from the field. The Toronto Raptors are also coming off a 121-108 victory albeit against the Orlando Magic. I think this game is going to be controlled by the Celtics through and through, they are in rhythm and have distributed the ball well. LOCK IT IN.
2) Phoenix Suns ML @ +124
The second pick and arguably game of the day will be Phoenix Suns ML @ +124 vs the Dallas Mavericks. The last time these two faced off the Phoenix Suns came away victorious 107-105. This victory came at home and this time the Suns will be traveling to Dallas to try and deliver the same results.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder ML @ +200
One of the best value picks on the slate in my opinion, OKC ML @ +200 vs Atlanta Hawks. OKC is just so fun to watch, they distribute the ball well and get to the line often. Atlanta has stretches of poor shooting by Trey Young that can cause Atlanta to fall behind early. If OKC can get ahead they will pressure bad shots and win this game.
Bonus Pick: Indiana Pacers ML @ +450
When teams are this big of underdogs it becomes very lucrative to throw a small percentage of the roll on teams like this. Pacers are bad don’t get me wrong but not 11 points bad. Golden State was up by 25 points against Houston on Saturday and Houston got within 6 at one point. Take it but don’t count on it.
Odds Analysis
Boston Celtics ML @ -104
Sitting at -104 Fanduel has the Boston Celtics predicted to win 51% of the time. Our model indicates the Celtics actually have a 68% predicted win rate. Our model also indicates that the Boston Celtics should have a -7 point spread compared to the books +1. In this case the +1 spread is also a great play
Phoenix Suns ML @ +124
At +124 Fanduel gives the Phoenix Suns a 45% chance of winning, our model indicates that the Suns actually have a 61% chance of winning. The spread in our model has the Suns at -4 whilst Fanduel has them at +3.
Oklahoma City Thunder ML @ +200
With +200 odds Fanduel gives the Thunder a 33% chance of winning, our model indicates the Thunder have a 44% chance of winning. This game is almost a coinflip, however your are getting great odds with the Thunder here. SGA gets to the line often and can accumulate a ton of free points. Our spread has the Thunder at +2, Fanduel has them at +4.
Indiana Pacers ML @ +450
Sitting at +420 Fanduel gives the Pacers a 19% chance of winning, our model indicates the Pacers have closer to a 46% chance. This model does not take into consideration the injury of Tyrese Haliburton which may be part of the discrepancy between projected win percentages. I do think however that putting 1% of the bankroll on a long shot like this is not bad.