Best Value NBA Picks
1) Dallas Mavericks ML @ +172
As much as it pains me as a Nuggets fan, todays NBA Picks start off with the Dallas Mavericks ML @ +172 vs the Denver Nuggets. Mavericks are coming off a dominant 130-11 win over the Phoenix Suns who never came close. The three ball was falling for the Dallas Mavericks with 60 of their points coming from beyond the arc with 48% accuracy. By the half the Mavericks where already leading 67-41. This bet is an emotional hedge for me if the Mavs win, something will come my way and if they lose ill get to enjoy a Nuggets win. This is effectively a win-win bet for me.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers -5 @ -110
Due to the lack of games the last game for our NBA picks today will be the Cleveland Cavaliers -5 @ -110 vs the Los Angeles Lakers. I know what you are thinking how are you to go with the Cavaliers after their 81-92 loss against the Knicks ? We are not going to talk about that. If the Cavaliers get rebounds and shoot better than 22% from three, then they can win this game by 10.
Odds Analysis
Dallas Mavericks ML @ +172
Sitting at +172 Fanduel has the Dallas Mavericks predicted to win 37% of the time. Our model indicates the Denver Nuggets actually have a 57% predicted win rate. Our model also indicates that the Dallas Mavericks should have a -2 point spread compared to the books +5. In this case the +5 spread is also a reasonable play
Cleveland Cavaliers -5 @ -110
At -110 Fanduel gives the Cleveland Cavaliers a 52% chance of covering, our model indicates that the Cavs actually have a 60% chance of covering. The spread in our model has the Cavs at -9 whilst Fanduel has them at -5. If they give me points I am taking them 10/10 times.